FOR PRIVATE EQUITY

Every deal decision, defensible from sourcing to exit.

SignalPattern runs the deal lifecycle on one evidence chain. Source the thesis, diligence it, take it to IC, watch the portfolio, plan value creation and get exit-ready, with a decision file behind every call.

Bring one deal question See the lifecycle

DEAL PIPELINE · ONE EVIDENCE CHAINIllustrative product UI

01 · SOURCE

Target A

Sector watch · thesis fit

SIGNAL

Target B

Sector watch · thesis fit

SIGNAL

02 · DILIGENCE

Target C

Thesis validation running

RUN · v2

03 · IC

Target D

IC file ready · 1 weak spot

FOR REVIEW

04 · HOLD

Portco E

Value-creation plan · 2 briefs

WATCHING

Portco F

Competitor brief approved

WATCHING

05 · EXIT

Portco G

Exit readiness file

PREPARING

THE DEAL LIFECYCLE

The thesis doesn't stop at IC. Neither does the evidence.

Most firms rebuild the case at every stage: a sourcing memo, a diligence pack, an IC deck, a value-creation plan, an exit story. SignalPattern carries one evidence chain through all of them, and every outcome feeds the next deal.

01LISTEN

Source

Watch sectors and markets for the moves that fit your thesis, before they are banked.

Proprietary sourcing intelligenceThesis-fit signals

02DECIDE

Diligence

Validate the thesis claim by claim, with causal drivers and counterfactuals.

Faster, repeatable diligenceWeak spots found early

03DECIDE

A decision file the committee can open, question and rerun.

Confidence-scored IC filesEvery claim traced

04ACT · OBSERVE

Hold

Always-on portfolio monitoring that feeds the value-creation plan.

Portfolio-wide signalsPlans that execute

05LEARN

Exit

An exit story built on the record of what actually happened.

Exit readinessLP reporting support

Illustrative deal · Middle-market buy-and-build

The best target on paper can be the worst one to own.

Which three add-ons fill the platform’s service gaps, and which top-ranked target should we not buy?

What surfaces
A sector watch on hiring, pricing and leadership changes surfaces 40 add-on candidates.
What we evaluate
Owners and an approach plan for each shortlisted target.
Shortlist 3 of 40. The financially strongest candidate is dropped on the ninth pass because employee-sentiment and integration-friction signals contradict its numbers.
How it moves forward
Add-on financing.
Potential capital: Unitranche lender · Co-invest LP.
Post-close integration outcomes write back against the prediction.

DILIGENCE · IC

Validate the thesis, claim by claim.

Break the investment thesis into the claims that must hold. Each one is sourced, scored and stress-tested, with causal drivers and counterfactuals, so the IC sees what supports the deal and where it is thin, before anyone signs.

You make the bet. We make it defensible.

IC FILE · THESIS VALIDATIONIllustrative

THESIS[Target] can expand margin through pricing and mix within the hold period.

Pricing headroom vs. competitorsSUPPORTED

Customer concentration risk is lowSUPPORTED

Mix shift to higher-margin linesSUPPORTED

Churn holds after a price increaseTHIN EVIDENCE

Management can execute the planNEEDS INPUT

FOR THE IC

One claim rests on thin evidence. Follow-up research is queued.

WHAT WOULD CHANGE IT

Counterfactuals run on every driver of the margin case.

PORTFOLIO WATCH · BRIEFSIllustrative

ALLMARKETCOMPETITORREGULATORYSUPPLY CHAIN

Portco ECOMPETITOR

Main competitor changed its pricing modelApprove → add to value-creation plan

Portco FREGULATORY

New filing affects a core marketApprove → rerun the thesis

Portco GSUPPLY CHAIN

Key input supplier under stressApprove → open a strategy run

Portco HMARKET

Category narrative shifting in buyer researchReview later

HOLD · VALUE CREATION

Know when the thesis moves, across every portco.

Always-on watches across market, competitor, regulatory and supply-chain signals. When something changes, an evidence-backed brief lands in review. Approve it, and it becomes context for the value-creation plan, the next board pack, or a fresh run of the thesis.

WATCHMarket, competitor, regulatory, supply-chain signals

BRIEFEvidence-backed, reviewed by your team

ACTValue-creation plans that turn into tracked work

Every IC file answers the eight questions.

Analysis got cheap. Conviction did not. The decision file is simple enough to sign, structured enough to defend, and stays inspectable after the deal closes.

01Where did this data come from?

02Can the claim be traced?

03How confident are we?

04What are the weak spots?

05What would change the answer?

06Is the run reproducible?

07What if the model changes?

08Who owns the output?

Open the decision file

Know what supports the decision.

Where did this data come from?

Every source is registered, with run-level lineage from ingest to output.

Can the claim be traced?

Every material claim opens to its source and the transform path behind it.

How confident are we?

Confidence is scored per claim and per task, and weak inputs cap everything built on them.

What are the weak spots?

Evidence gaps are flagged by task, and model disagreement is kept, not averaged.

What would change the answer?

Move the causal drivers to test a different set of assumptions. In TaskExecutor, edit the deliverable to create a counterfactual and revisit the decision.

OWN SOFTWARE COMPANIES?Modernize it. Operate it. Defend it.The AI operating layer for software portfolios: one foundation every portco builds on, one playbook across the firm, and an answer to whether each product is AI-disrupted or AI-advantaged.Software portfolios →

PORTCO RUN · DISRUPTED OR ADVANTAGED?

Seat compression from agents−

Pricing model, seat vs usage±

Switching cost+

Data moat+